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Uedu Open / IDS.333 Risk and Decision Analysis
IDS.333

IDS.333 Risk and Decision Analysis

Prof. Richard de Neufville | Fall 2021
Business & Management Systems Thinking Engineering Systems Engineering Systems Design
前往原始課程
CC BY-NC-SA 4.0
課程簡介
The course addresses a fundamental issue in system design and management, the need for engineering leaders to recognize uncertainty in the performance of their plans or designs. It presents discounted cash flow (DCF) Excel models, simulation, and decision analysis as primary ways to analyze possible outcomes of design and management strategies. It also addresses how we should analyze possible performance outcomes and cope with risks in demand, requirements, cost, technology, etc.
Course Information
SourceMIT 開放式課程
科系Institute for Data, Systems, and Society
LanguageEnglish
影片數45
課程影片 (45)
1
Unit 2: the Forecast is always wrong, Video 1: Cost Estimates
Unit 2: the Forecast is always wrong, Video 1: Cost Estimates
2
Unit 2: The Forecast is ‘Always’ wrong, Video 2: Demand Forecasts
Unit 2: The Forecast is ‘Always’ wrong, Video 2: Demand Forecasts
3
Unit 2: The Forecast is Always wrong, Video 3: Porcupine Graphs
Unit 2: The Forecast is Always wrong, Video 3: Porcupine Graphs
4
Unit 2: The Forecast is "Always" wrong, Video 4: Common Forecasting Process Inherently Flawed
Unit 2: The Forecast is "Always" wrong, Video 4: Common Forecasting Process Inherently Flawed
5
Unit 2: The Forecast is Always wrong, Video 5: Flaw of Averages 1-the Concept
Unit 2: The Forecast is Always wrong, Video 5: Flaw of Averages 1-the Concept
6
Unit 2: The Forecast is Always wrong, Video 6: Flaw of Averages 2-the Consequences
Unit 2: The Forecast is Always wrong, Video 6: Flaw of Averages 2-the Consequences
7
Unit 4: Parking Garage Case Example, Video 1: Introduction
Unit 4: Parking Garage Case Example, Video 1: Introduction
8
Unit 4: Parking Garage Case Example, Video 2: Logic of Analysis
Unit 4: Parking Garage Case Example, Video 2: Logic of Analysis
9
Unit 4: Parking Garage Case Example, Video 3: Recognizing Uncertainty, Simulation
Unit 4: Parking Garage Case Example, Video 3: Recognizing Uncertainty, Simulation
10
Unit 4: Parking Garage Case Example, Video 4: Adding Flexibility
Unit 4: Parking Garage Case Example, Video 4: Adding Flexibility
11
Unit 4: Parking Garage Case Example, Video 5: Design to Manage Uncertainties
Unit 4: Parking Garage Case Example, Video 5: Design to Manage Uncertainties
12
Unit 4: Parking Garage Case Example, Video 6: Flexibility is Win-Win
Unit 4: Parking Garage Case Example, Video 6: Flexibility is Win-Win
13
Unit 5: Mechanics of Simulation, Video 1: Concept—What Is Needed
Unit 5: Mechanics of Simulation, Video 1: Concept—What Is Needed
14
Unit 5: Mechanics of Simulation, Video 2: Recommended Process
Unit 5: Mechanics of Simulation, Video 2: Recommended Process
15
Unit 5: Mechanics of Simulation, Video 3: Outcomes and Target Curves
Unit 5: Mechanics of Simulation, Video 3: Outcomes and Target Curves
16
Unit 5: Mechanics of Simulation, Video 4: Decision Rules and Unit Closure
Unit 5: Mechanics of Simulation, Video 4: Decision Rules and Unit Closure
17
Unit 5: Mechanics of Simulation, Video 5: Physical Situation
Unit 5: Mechanics of Simulation, Video 5: Physical Situation
18
Unit 5: Mechanics of Simulation, Video 6: Simulation and Value Flexibility "on" Project
Unit 5: Mechanics of Simulation, Video 6: Simulation and Value Flexibility "on" Project
19
Unit 5: Mechanics of Simulation, Video 7: Value of Flex "in" Project
Unit 5: Mechanics of Simulation, Video 7: Value of Flex "in" Project
20
Unit 7: Drivers of Flexibility, Video 1: Five Main Drivers—Uncertainty is Most Important
Unit 7: Drivers of Flexibility, Video 1: Five Main Drivers—Uncertainty is Most Important
21
Unit 7: Drivers of Flexibility, Video 2: Economies of Scale
Unit 7: Drivers of Flexibility, Video 2: Economies of Scale
22
Unit 7: Drivers of Flexibility, Video 3: Discount rate and Learning Promote
Unit 7: Drivers of Flexibility, Video 3: Discount rate and Learning Promote
23
Unit 7: Drivers of Flexibility, Video 4: Balancing Overall Effect of Drivers
Unit 7: Drivers of Flexibility, Video 4: Balancing Overall Effect of Drivers
24
Unit 8: Decision Analysis 1, Video 1: Advantages
Unit 8: Decision Analysis 1, Video 1: Advantages
25
Unit 8: Decision Analysis 2, Video 2: Decision Trees
Unit 8: Decision Analysis 2, Video 2: Decision Trees
26
Unit 8: Decision Analysis 3, Video 3: Constructing Trees
Unit 8: Decision Analysis 3, Video 3: Constructing Trees
27
Unit 8: Decision Analysis 4, Video 4: Multistage Analysis
Unit 8: Decision Analysis 4, Video 4: Multistage Analysis
28
Unit 8: Decision Analysis 5 Video 5: Retrospective Overview
Unit 8: Decision Analysis 5 Video 5: Retrospective Overview
29
Unit 9: Value of Information, Video 1: Concept of Test
Unit 9: Value of Information, Video 1: Concept of Test
30
Unit 9: Value of Information, Video 2: Value of Test
Unit 9: Value of Information, Video 2: Value of Test
31
Unit 9: Value of Information, Video 3: Expected Value of Sample Information
Unit 9: Value of Information, Video 3: Expected Value of Sample Information
32
Unit 9: Value of Information, Video 4: Expected Value of Perfect Information
Unit 9: Value of Information, Video 4: Expected Value of Perfect Information
33
Unit 9: Value of Information 5, Video 5: Is Test Worthwhile?
Unit 9: Value of Information 5, Video 5: Is Test Worthwhile?
34
Unit 10: Utility Analysis and Multidimensional Evaluation, Video 1: Is Optimization Possible?
Unit 10: Utility Analysis and Multidimensional Evaluation, Video 1: Is Optimization Possible?
35
Unit 10: Utility Analysis and Multidimensional Evaluation, Video 2: Diminishing Marginal Utility
Unit 10: Utility Analysis and Multidimensional Evaluation, Video 2: Diminishing Marginal Utility
36
Unit 10: Utility Analysis and Multidimensional Evaluation, Video 3: Conditions for Value Function
Unit 10: Utility Analysis and Multidimensional Evaluation, Video 3: Conditions for Value Function
37
Unit 10: Utility Analysis and Multidimensional Evaluation, Video 4: Consequences
Unit 10: Utility Analysis and Multidimensional Evaluation, Video 4: Consequences
38
Unit 10: Utility Analysis and Multidimensional Evaluation, Video 5: There's No Valid Group Utility
Unit 10: Utility Analysis and Multidimensional Evaluation, Video 5: There's No Valid Group Utility
39
Unit 10: Utility Analysis and Multidimensional Evaluation, Video 6: Dominated Solutions
Unit 10: Utility Analysis and Multidimensional Evaluation, Video 6: Dominated Solutions
40
Unit 10: Utility Analysis and Multidimensional Evaluation, Video 7: Robustness and Take-aways
Unit 10: Utility Analysis and Multidimensional Evaluation, Video 7: Robustness and Take-aways
41
Unit 11: De-Salt and LNG Cases, Video 1: De-Salt Plant Australia
Unit 11: De-Salt and LNG Cases, Video 1: De-Salt Plant Australia
42
Unit 11: LNG Case 1, Video 2: Introduction
Unit 11: LNG Case 1, Video 2: Introduction
43
Unit 11: LNG Case 2, Video 3: Initial Analysis
Unit 11: LNG Case 2, Video 3: Initial Analysis
44
Unit 11: LNG Case 3, Video 4: Learning effects
Unit 11: LNG Case 3, Video 4: Learning effects
45
Unit 11: LNG Case 4, Video 5: Final Analysis
Unit 11: LNG Case 4, Video 5: Final Analysis